The Kelly criterion and the 80/20 rule

by Marius Wender on February 22, 2012

After looking over my last post on the 80/20 rule and also having a discussion with a fellow trader, I’ve decided to write this short post in order to add one more angle to the 80/20 rule, and more specifically, how it relates to – to what I found to be – the best staking staking system and namely the Kelly criterion.

I will not go in full details on the Kelly system, but for those of you who are not familiar, here it is in a nutshell. Your stakes – or the risk you take – are in direct proportion to the probability of your bet or outcome, happening. So the higher the probability, the higher your risk should be and on the flip side, if your probability is low, your stake or the risk you take, should be adjusted accordingly. Or in other words, the higher the value or edge you have the higher the percentage of your total bankroll that you should commit, and if there is no value or edge then there is no bet.

Now, how does this fit in with the 80/20 rule ?

In the 80/20 post I talked about how you should focus and invest more time and resources in the 20% of the trades that bring in 80% of the profits. By doing so, you will manage to make more money while trading less and become a more effective and efficient trader.

The Kelly criterion fits into this scheme perfectly, because applying Kelly, you want to use the “right” percentage of your total bankroll for each individual trade, that will enable you to have the highest possible return on your bankroll or achieve the optimal growth rate. You want to increase the returns on those 20% of the traders, since your records clearly indicate that those are the trades that have the most value and edge.

This works for trading, investing or sports betting.

Probably the most popular applicant of Kelly is the US billionaire Warren Buffet. In 1992 Buffet was quoted on stock diversification.

Many pundits would therefore say the [this] strategy must be riskier than that employed by more conventional investors. We disagree. We believe that a policy of portfolio concentration may well decrease risk if it raises, as it should, both the intensity with which an investor thinks about a business and the comfort-level he must feel with its economic characteristics before buying into it.

Warren Buffett

He might be referring to stocks, but it can easily be related to the trading activities of a sports trader.

By using the 80/20 rule, you have analyzed your past trading records and know where those 20% of the trades come from and you want to stake or risk more on those traders. Why would you want to diversify or spend more time on trades that do not bring in the same amount of profits? But as in the previous post, for this to be implemented, you have to have past records for analysis and also to be profitable, this meaning that you have an edge to start with.

Also keep in mind that Kelly can be to risky for some, and that is why most trader I know use a half Kelly as an extra measure of caution.

As always, if you have any questions or something to add, you can leave them in the comments section below.

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The 80/20 rule and how it applies to sports trading

by Marius Wender on February 14, 2012

80/20 Rule and How it applies to sports trading

“How to make more money while trading less” could have been a suitable title for this post as well, because that is what the 80/20 rule is all about, doing or achieving more while working or committing less resources.

What is the 80/20 rule?

Before we go into how the 80/20 rule will help you make more money by trading less, let’s begin by talking a little bit about how this principle got born, what it is, where is it used and why it is so powerful. The 80/20 principle is also know as the law of vital few or the Pareto principle, named after the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923), who came across it while making research into different patterns of wealth distribution in Italy, discovering that the wealth distribution was very unequal, with 80% of the land being owned by only 20% of the population. This 80/20 pattern that he discovered, turned out to be a predictable pattern that could be charted out and expressed in a formula. He created a relationship between two distinct sets of data, in his case, the total amount of land or wealth and the total population.

His discovery was later brought into the spotlight by two men. One was the Harvard professor of philology, George Zipf and the second was the Romanian-born US engineer Joseph Juran, also know as the “father of quality”. While Zipf’s activity was more of a rediscovery of the law, naming it the “Principle of Least Effort”, Juran attributed his process of quality inspection to Pareto. Juran is know for introducing his quality inspection process – which of course was based on the 80/20 rule or the rule of the vital few – to the Japanese, who after WWII wanted to become an industrial power rather than a military one, only the products they were manufacturing were known for their lack of quality. Juran pointed out the fact that 80% of the losses in quality were a result of 20% of the errors . So by cutting out those 20% (or those vital few errors in quality inspection), he managed to remove 80% of the losses in quality and therefore make a better quality product with the least effort.

80/20 Principle Causes and EffectsAnd this is why the 80/20 rule is so important and powerful. 20% of our actions bring in 80% of the results, yet most of us think that all our actions have roughly the same results. So by concentrating on those vital few actions or the 20%, we can increase our efficiency and effectiveness.The 80/20 rule was commonly found in the business environment, but over the past few decades it has become ever popular in other fields and aspects of life.Once you have understood the concept of this principle, you will start to see it everywhere.

How does it apply to sports trading?

How does the 80/20 rule apply to sports trading and how exactly will it help you make more money by trading less. Let’s take a look at how it shapes the sports trading environment.

80% of the profits are made by 20% of the traders

The first one, and probably the most obvious one, is that 80% of the profits are made by 20% of the traders. This applies to both the overall view as well as the match or market situation. The overall view refers to the long term, where the 20% take the 80% profits over the course of a month, year or even longer. As for the match or market situation, it refers to the situation in which in 20% of traders that actively trade that market are the one that take away 80% of the profits.

And one of your goals as a sports trader is to be in that 20%. But how do you get there? By implementing the 80/20 rule into your trading, similar to the example we’re about to cover.

80% of your losses come from 20% of your trades

This was one of the first 80/20 rules I implemented into my own trading, back when I was starting out. Analyze your data and you will notice that 80% of your losses come from 20% of the losing trades and by managing to identify how, were and why these trades occur, you will be able to eliminate them completely, which in turn will yield higher profits. Cutting out those few, but large losses will have a big effect on your bottom line. To some extent this also is related to the following saying “Cut your losses short and let your profits run” .

80% of your profit comes from 20% of your traders

This is the most important aspect of the 80/20 rule when applied to sports trading.If you have been actively trading the sports markets for more than 6 months, and if you have been keeping accurate records of all your trades, you’ll notice that 20% of your trades bring in 80% of the profits.

Now, this is very important and should have a few ramification into your sports trading activity. After identifying the 20% of the trades that bring in the majority of the profits, your next step is to solely concentrate on those traders. And by successfully managing to concentrate on those traders, you can still make 80% of your profits but the important thing is that you have invested only 20% of your resources. In consequence you have become much more efficient as a trader. After this step in completed, you start of invest more resources in those 20% trades which will help you become even more profitable and effective than before, and still have less resources invested.

To help you better understand this concept, I will give you an example from my tennis trading activities. Tennis can very well be considered a year-long sports. From the 1st of January up until late November, early December, there is a tennis match each and every week. But trading each day of each week is very impractical, firstly due to some obvious reasons like market liquidity. But suppose you had traded each day of each week for a full year. Some of your discoveries would include things such writing off the ATP 250 events and WTA equivalent , from your trading calendar, as those tournaments will hardly bring any significant profits. Then you are left with the ATP 500, ATP 1000 and Grand Slams (and the WTA equivalents). Then moving forward with the 80/20 rule, it’s about selecting the stages of those tournaments that produce the best matches for trading, and concentrating on those. By doing this, you have a solid match selection criteria on your hands, which brings you closer to the 20% of traders that make the 80% profits. Taking it even a step further, it’s about identifying which moments of a match are the most profitable, or in other words, when are the most favorable entry points likely to appear during the course of a tennis match. In tennis trading, this can be important because matches – especially on the men’s side in Grand Slams – can last up to several hours, and knowing when and what to look for will save you a lot of time. During the course of a 2-3 hour match, I am actively trading 15 minutes or less, which not only frees me up from having to stay at my trading desk for 3 full hours, but also increases my ROI on time spent. So, by knowing which moments of which matches in which tournaments will bring me the most profit, with the least time invested, I can concentrate and invest more resources on those high ROI traders, which in turn will bring me higher profits.

In a nutshell, that is how the 80/20 rule is applied on tennis trading, and with a few adjustments it is the same process for other sports. This rule can also be applied to see which sports are more profitable than others. In fact that is why I choose to be more of a tennis trader than football trader, because I found that football trading was stealing a lot of my time, yet not producing the ROI that tennis would. But this is a case-by-case situation.

If you are a new trader, just starting out, the concepts talked about in this post might not be that important to you, since your aim is not necessarily to be more efficient (although it should be something to keep in the back of your mind) , but to gather data and information and gradually work out what type of trader you are and what sports you are naturally inclined towards trading. After 6 months, you will have enough information to put the 80/20 rule to good use, and hopefully become a better trader.

So to sum up this posts, analyze your data and concentrate your trading resources into the 20% of the trades that bring in 80% of the profits, and by doing so, you will be able to make more money while trading less.

As a side note and before I end this post, I want to recommend two books that have the 80/20 rule as their main topic. The first one is the The 80/20 Principle: The Secret of Achieving More with Less, which coincidentally is a book written by Richard Koch, who is one of the first investors in Betfair; and the second one is the The 4-Hour Work Week: Escape the 9-5, Live Anywhere and Join the New Rich. The 4-Hour Work Week is not a book about trading, in fact neither of the two are,  but it does cover a lot of interesting aspects, that I know any sports trader would enjoy and so far none of the people I have recommended it to have ever complained.

As always, if there is anything I missed or if you have anything to add, please leave a comment.

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Things to take away from the 2012 Australian Open

by Marius Wender on January 30, 2012

Before we move forward and enter the month of February, which is a more “relaxed” month from a tennis trading perspective, let’s take a look at some of the things that took place during this year’s edition of the Australian Open and what we can take away.

  • Grand Slams are the best tennis tournaments for trading, and this past edition of the Australian Open has been another great example (the opportunities are always there and the liquidity is always high)
  • Djokovic won his 5th Grand Slam title and 3rd Australian Open, and similar to Nadal at the start of 2011, he will have the opportunity to become the first male tennis player in the open era to achieve a non-calendar year Grand Slam
  • Djokovic’s confidence and belief went to even higher levels, and I’m sure in the locker room he has a similar aura to what Federer had in his glory days
  • For the first time, Nadal has broken a negative record, by managing to lose in 3 consecutive Grand Slam finals
  • Another loss for Andy Murray in the semi-finals, but it needs to be said that he did put on better performance this time but this was both due to the fact that he had a relatively easy draw losing only one set till the semi-final and met a fatigued Djokovic
  • Federer’s task of getting another Grand Slam is getting more difficult with each passing Grand Slam
  • From all the French players on tour and in the top 100, Tsonga is still the only one that can take on the big four, but he needs to mature even further and be more professional about his tennis
  • Monfils continues to be a good prospect for trading
  • Berdych and Del Potro showed signs of better play and the rest of the season should be even better
  • Almagro played much better than expected, he did profit from winning over a fatigued/injured Wawrinka in the 3rd round, but he played well in the 4th round against Berdych. Overall his performance at the AO should boost his confidence even further for the South American clay court swing that takes place in February
  • Tomic and Dolgopolov are two players that we will see more of in the future
  • Azarenka won her first Grand Slam, and by doing so, manages to make a full transition from a top juniors player to a top wta tour player, and also claims the number one ranking
  • Wozniacki falls to the number 4 ranking, under Azarenka, Kvitova and Sharapova. This is a more fair representation of what is taking place on court
  • This was probably Clijsters’s last Australian Open, which is sad to hear, since her matches were very good for trading
  • Lisicki only made it to the 4th round, but if she continues to look for ways to improve her game and also matures as a player (most of the time she looks very rushed and anxious on court) I’m sure she will have consistently better performances at future Grand Slams
  • Unlike most early exist from Sam Stosur, in this year’s match she actually managed to play well, but her opponent was just better, and would have taken out any player in the draw in that day
  • Na Li lost in the 4th round but if she had made an easy cross-court backhand in that second set tie-break, she could have easily made quarters or better. The 4th round result along with the Sydney final look like good results, but I wouldn’t put much emphasis on them since her game is still a fine balance between genius and unforced errors, and I would look for some early exists in big tournaments from her this season

That’s about it. If there is anything I missed that was worth mentioning, let me know in the comments below.

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First week of tennis trading in 2012

by Marius Wender on January 11, 2012

Ken Rosewall Arena

The first week of tennis trading in 2012 has come and gone. It’s been an interesting week due to a series of events, but probably the most highlighted fact was that we have had a series of injuries and retirements. Federer, Florian Mayer, Polona Hectog, Serena Williams, Steve Darcis, Tommy Haas, Bogomolov Jr., Lisicki, Penneta, Clijsters, Georges, Volandri and Kuznetsova have all withdrawn from matches in the first or early second week tournaments. Some reasons of retirement are more serious than others, but overall there have been 13 withdrawals at the time I am writing this post. The good news is that most of the mentioned players will be fit and ready to play at the Australian Open is less then a week’s time.

Now let’s take a look at what actually took place during the first week.

On the men’s side we had the tournaments in Qatar, Chennai and Brisbane, all three being 250 events and on the women’s side we’ve had the tournaments in Auckland and Brisbane.

Let’s start with the women’s tournaments. A big winner during the past week has been Kaia Kanepi.Looking over her Grand Slam numbers, you’ll see that she’s made quarter-finals at all Grand Slam events, except for the Australian Open where her best performance is only a relatively modest 3rd round, achieved in 2009. With a more accesible draw, she could finally top her best performance at the first Grand Slam of the year. Unfortunately for her, winning a tournament before the AO, can both help and harm her changes of putting on a good performance in Melbourne. It could help her in terms of having a boost in confidence that she can take on anyone, and harm her because she is in the stoplight, people having more expectation from her and players being more aware of the threat she poses. But then again, she is 26 years old, and if there is a time in which she can step up her game, it’s now. One more thing to mention about her, is that her win last year, in Tokyo, against the world no. 1 Wozniacki also helped her with the belief that a top 15 (maybe top 10) ranking is something within her grasp and something she can be aiming for.Of course, it could easily be said that, if Clijsters wouldn’t have gotten injured or if Kvitova would have played, things could have been different. But in tennis, as in trading, it’s about taking full advantage of the opportunities that arise, and Kanepi has managed to do that very well during this past week.

In Auckland, the 2008 Wimbledon semi-finalist, Jie Zheng made a successful comeback by managing to go all the way and win the tournament. Winning a tournament is always nice but it’s even nicer when your matches bring up some opportunities for tennis traders to take advantage of. Two such opportunities were available in her last two matches.Both in the semi-finals and final she lost the first set with a convincing scoreline, and managed afterwards to regroup and get the win. While I wasn’t able to catch and trade the final, I did manage to trade the semi-final in which she played Kuznetsova. After she lost the first set 6-2, she traded at 1.10 and lower with 1.10 being a clear cut entry point.She is a great mover and can put a lot of balls back in play.Provided that she stays healthy, I’m sure we’ll see more of her.

On the men’s side, the big winner surely has to be the young Canadian, Milos Raonic.He won the Chennai Open, which is considered to be a weaker tournament due to it’s weaker roster, with none of the top 5 players taking part in the event.But even so, winning is never easy and Milos managed to put another title under his belt. The final was particularly interesting,  both from a neutral watcher’s perspective as well as a tennis trader’s one. It was a three setter, which is always good, with all three sets ending in a tie-break. There were no breaks of serve but Raonic did trade as low as 1.17 with 1.35-1.40 being a good entry point. Raonic is set to be a future top 10 player with the serve he possesses but I’m afraid that for us traders, it will not make much of a difference, because he is a very talked about player, which makes him overvalued most of the times.

In the other two tournaments on the men’s side, Murray won in Brisbane and Tsonga in Qatar. Not that much to mention about Brisbane, except for the fact that Dolgopolov put on a good performance, having had two matches in which he was down by a set and a break, and managing to come back and win.In Qatar, the major news was that Federer withdrew only for the second time in his career, which permitted Tsonga to have an easy access to the final where he eventually won. Monfils played a very good match in the semi final, defeating Nadal in straight sets. I wouldn’t put to much emphasis on any Monfils win, since he is a player that can be up and down, not only in matches but during a season, month or tournament. He does have good shots, a reliable serve and impressive counter-punching abilities but all the injuries he has had during his career have limited his potential.

This first week of the year also hosted the Hopman cup, which isn’t a tournament from which any clear conclusions can be drawn in reference to the form of the participating players, but as in recent years, there have been some matches worth noting. The Czech Republic, composed of the Berdych and Kvitova, won the cup. But the players I want to mention is Kvitova and Bartoli. Both of these players, posted good numbers, and while Kvitova is the world no.2 and is always expected to do well, Bartoli can be undervalued at times, and I would look out for that during the current season. She looked very fit and determined to put on a good performance, and if she does get a decent draw at the AO, she could go deep in the tournament. But I’d like to see how she does in Sydney because at the Hopman Cup it was an indoor tournament and at Sydney it’s outdoor and that could pose a few more challenges.

We’ll see how things go in the second week as there isn’t much to go until the start of the AO.

And in other news, both related and unrelated to tennis trading:

  • The Geeks Toy software is now available for Betdaq as well – not that much of a help for tennis traders since the Betdaq markets for tennis matches are untradable in-play due to a number of reasons.
  • Mark Iverson posted a three part post with some thoughts after his first year as a full time trader – interesting read for anyone looking into becoming a full time trader
  • The NBA season is well and truly underway which is always nice but it doesn’t help me that much. In the last seasons, NBA matches were a good way to supplement the lack of tennis matches in the month of December, but due to the NBA lockdown that did not help at all this past December.
  • Messi won his 3rd consecutive Ballon d’Or and Thierry Henry scored a goal for Arsenal in the FA Cup just like old times.

Image Credit: Ken Rosewall Arena

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Injuries before and during the Australian Open

by Marius Wender on January 5, 2012

The tennis season’s structure is quite amazing.It never ceases to amaze me how in December everything is pretty much dead, from a tennis traders perspective,  then as soon as the fireworks are over on new year’s eve, there are over 30 tennis matches available for trading. And it’s not like these are just any matches.These are high quality matches, with top players taking part.

Of course the Australian Open has a big part to play here, as all players are trying to gain as much form as possible before the first Grand Slam of the year. But the positioning of this event, so early in the calendar, has always been a problem for a large number of players, mainly due to the fact of not having enough time to prepare. And as a consequence, this has led players to be more prone to injuries; and similar to what we have seen in the past, this season we will have a number of players that will have the misfortune to get injured before or during the AO.

The first example that comes to mind is from a few seasons ago, when there were 3 withdrawals in one day.  I remember that day quite well because I took a fairly big hit on that day, having had an open position on all 3 players. Gael Monfis, Jie Zheng and Victoria Azarenka all decided to call it quits on Day 8 of the 2009 Australian Open. Looking back, that wasn’t such a fun day for me.

In 2010, Hewitt, Safina and Nadal, were the most notable withdrawals of the 2010 edition of the AO.In 2011, the first withdrawal that comes to mind is Nalbandian, who had to retire in the match against Berankis, because just didn’t have enough gas left in the tank after playing an epic match against Hewitt. Other notable withdrawals last season, were the ones of Baghdatis, and Troicki. One more match that could have been recorded as a withdrawal, is the QF in which Nadal did not retire against his countryman Ferrer, but might as well have done so.

And this year, only 5 days into the new season and two players already suffered injuries.Both Sabine Lisicki and Serena Williams were unable to continue in their AO warm-up tournaments in Auckland and Brisbane, respectively.

The world no.2 also decided to let us know that he will be taking a break after the AO to look after a shoulder injury that has been bothering him for some time.In a recent press conference he also spoke about some of the much needed adjustments he’s trying to bring to his game. He decided to try and play with a heavier racket, with the main goal being more power into his shots. He stated that he hasn’t had the time to fully get accustomed with the new changes, so we’ll see how that goes for him.

To wrap it up, there are less than 12 days to go to the start of the 2012 AO, and injuries are something to take into consideration – as always – but even more so, at this stage of the season.

 

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2012 Tennis trading season

by Marius Wender on December 29, 2011

Federer at the Mubadala Exhibition Tennis Tournament

It’s been a while since my last post, but with the tennis season on break it is easier to find time and write a more in-depth preview for the 2012 season.

Looking back at the 2011 tennis season, you have to mention the fact that it’s very much been the year in which Novak Djokovic has stamped his mark on tennis history. 41-0 was Novak’s record for 2011 before the French Open semi-final that saw him finally lose a match.

Federer and Djokovic

I feel that I covered these two players already in previous posts and there isn’t that much to add, so I’ll try to keep it short.

Some tennis experts still see Federer as the top player he was a few years back, but they refuse to see the facts. I agree with them to some extend, meaning that I still see Federer being there in the top and being a contender at each Grand Slam. But he’s over 30 now and this past season he has had a few bad loses including the Tsonga match at Wimbledon and the Djokovic match at US Open. And interestingly enough a pattern of play has started to take shape in which he starts the matches in good form but doesn’t manage to finish them in the same way. I don’t remember if I mentioned this before, but one interesting fact about Federer is that laying him in the ATP 1000 tournaments has been a very profitable strategy over the past few years, and depending on a few circumstances, it could continue to be so, especially when his main focus will still be on Grand Slams.

But the most important thing in 2012 for Fed will be to get a gold medal at the Olympics. He already stated in numerous occasions that that is what he is aiming for, this season. He knows this might be his last chance and the grass surface at the All England Club offers him the best opportunity. Not to mention that he is a very loved player at Wimbledon, and the support and energy he will receive from the crowd could play a significant part; and he has a “feel good” factor there, having won 6 times.

But what I’m looking forward to in 2012 is more big losses for Federer and a few occasional big wins. And from a trading perspective, the older he gets the better he is for trading (as is the case with most top players).

For Djokovic, things can be a little confusing right now. He’s had the best season possible, and the main question is where to go from here ? The obvious response would be to keep doing what he was doing and continue getting more titles and attempt to win the French Open to get the career Grand Slam. A bit of a dip, from a results perspective is very much possible in 2012, so we’ll have to wait and see where he stands on a mental level, because for the past year he’s very much been in his own bubble were nobody could touch him. The injury he suffered at the end of the season represents a question mark as well. If we didn’t have to attend the year-end World Tour Finals I’m sure he would have taken the rest of the year off right after that Davis Cup match in which the injury occurred.

Ferrer

I’ll start by saying that I have never been a big fan of David Ferrer. But I do have to respect the guy because he is a true overachiever. He ended the 2011 season with a no. 5 ranking, which is a more than respectable position for someone like Ferrer. I expected 2011 to be the year Ferrer would decline in the rankings and maybe slide into tennis mediocrity as far as results are concerned. But as soon as 2011 started with the tournament in Auckland I was forced to change my outlook on Ferrer’s season. Good thing I did so, as the Auckland triumph was soon followed by a semi-final appearance at the Australian Open. A performance that saw him match his best result at a Grand Slam. To reach the semi final, he defeated Rafael Nadal in the quarters, who back then was “the talk of the town”, as a win for Rafa would have meant that he would be the only player in the open era that held all 4 grand slam titles at one time (or in other words, achieving the non-calendar year grand-slam). But will talk about Rafa a bit later. What’s important to note here is that Ferrer will be turning 30 in April 2012. 30 is the age, that for a tennis player is important both from physical and psychological perspective. The impact is even more accentuated on a player like Ferrer that lacks big weapons and has his strong point is putting a lot of balls back in play while also opening the court (typical play for a clay court player). The problem is that in order to keep applying that tactic and doing it at a high and competitive level you need to be in the best shape of your life  (physically speaking), and mentally you have be a giant. Inconsistencies in his game have always been there, but as he gets older, more of these fluctuations will surface out in matches and ultimately hurt his overall game. One more thing to mention here, and end the Ferrer topic, is that despite him having a more than decent season by the numbers (rankings and stats) laying him at odds shorter than 1.25 has been a profitable strategy in 2011 and should be even more profitable in 2012. I would go into more exact numbers but that could be an entirely different post. The thing to note here is that Ferrer should lose his top 10 ranking in 2012 and we will see more fluctuations in his matches.

Nadal

After what was a great 2010 season for Nadal, 2011 was always going to be hard because he had to rise up to the expectations that a world no.1 position imposed. As I said earlier, if Nadal would have won the 2011 Australian Open we would have been the only male athlete in the open era to hold a non-year Grand Slam. I remember that the press was really excited about the possibility of that happening but the chances were slim, since Nadal had contracted a virus at the Doha tournament that affected him severely for the rest of the month.

But was really the highlight of Nadal’s past season is Djokovic. He played against the Serb in 6 finals, out of which 2 were Grand Slam finals, and he lost on all 6 occasions. Clearly, by now Rafa has a perplex against Djokovic and has stated that his main focus for 2012 will be to regain his no. 1 ranking. But the way I see it, that will be difficult, and unless he can take advantage of any favorable circumstances that might arise, it will be close to impossible.

Looking at the tactics of the game, it has never been a secret on what the correct tactics are when you’re up against Nadal, but most of the time it has been all about execution during the span of several hours. One advantage that Nadal had over his opponents in the past, is that he would wear them out (physically and mentally), but the one that seems to be worn out most often is Rafa himself.

2012 will be a revealing year for the Mallorcan. A few years ago, you would have said that he could never win a Grand Slam played on any other surface than clay, then came the knee injury that saw him take a leave of absence from the game, and each time the Spaniard proved everyone wrong and delivered amazing result. Only then, there was a strong determining force behind him, each time. He wanted to win all Grand Slams and be world no.1. The only motivation now is being world no.1 again and winning more slams which isn’t really the best motivator. After winning the US Open in 2010 I’m sure he felt that his job is pretty much over and he has made his mark on tennis history and the question was where to go from there? At the end of this year Nadal even declared something along the same lines.

I have lacked a bit more passion for the game, intensity in my strokes, strength in my legs and mental strength. But the most important thing that is missing is mental strength, which makes all the rest possible.

Rafael Nadal

Rafa declared that will try to regain his motivation and spark in his game but we’ll have wait and see if that really is the case. He certainly has to bring something new to the table.

As a side note, for 2012 I expect Rafa to finally lose his Monte Carlo title and see a new winner there.

To end the Nadal subject and bring further evidence or the lack of fight in the Spaniard’s game this past season I want to share with you the fact that Nadal was served 3 bagels. Think about that for a moment. That means he was unable to win one single game, during the span of an entire set, in 3 separate occasions. That is the exact opposite of what Nadal has come to represent during the last seasons, and that is: fight until the end no matter what the scoreline is.

Tsonga and Del Potro

With Federer now being over 30, Nadal having a motivational question mark, and Djokovic very much being in his own bubble, Tsonga and Del Potro can very well take center stage this future season and impose themselves at the pinnacle of the game.

While Del Potro has already won a Slam, and can be said that the rest of this career is a constant chase for that form that brought him the 2009 US Open title, Tsonga is yet to reach tennis nirvana.

The Frenchman has reached the 2008 Australian Open final, crushing Nadal in the semis, but since then, injuries have had the better of him.But despite the injuries he has had in the 2008-2010 seasons he always finished those seasons ranked in the top 10 which says a lot about the potential, given an injury-free season. If I were to hand out a  ”most improved player of 2011″ award for the top players, I would award it to Tsonga, because on the psychological and self-belief level he has made a huge progress. Managing to win against Federer at Wimbledon after you’ve been 2 sets down is big news.

As far as game ability goes, the only liability the Frenchman had was his backhand. A backhand that has improved this past season ; an improvement that is now part of his game. Because while most players can work and improve their weaker shots, it’s all about how those shots play out during the more psychologically intense moments of matches, because when times are tough in matches, players tend to go back to their roots rather than subconsciously apply what they recently practiced and worked out in training.

Nadal vs Del Potro - Davis Cup Final - Betfair Graphic

Nadal vs Del Potro - Davis Cup Final - Betfair Graphic

It’s fair to say that looking strictly from a results point of view, Del Potro was a huge disappointment in the Davis Cup final. On day one of the final, he played Ferrer and could have closed the match on several occasions but failed to do so, giving Spain a crucial 2-0 advantage at  the end of day one. And in the third day, he really had no option but a win against Nadal. He put in a more than decent fight in that match, having started quite well by taking the first set and leading by a break until fatigue and “the mind game” started to kick in. In that match, Nadal’s starting price was below 1.15 and being pushed even lower, with the only viable reason being the fact that Del Po, a couple of days before he had to play a very long match against Ferrer. But tactics wise, as well as the execution of those tactics were always on Del Potro’s side which proved to be the case. But as I said in the end, over 9 hours of play was simply to much for the Argentine player and despite a almost unexpected burst of power when the match was all but over, there wasn’t much that he could do. But the fight and passion was there and certainly a sign of better things to come.

Looking over his 2011 season you have to give the guy full merits. He started the season ranked well out of the top 100 and had he been given a few slightly more favorable draws in some tournaments, he could have finished the season ranked inside the top 10. Further more, the injury that kept him away from tennis is quite a severe one, and most tennis players never come back to play at a professional level ever again. But to see someone with the qualities of Del Po cut his career short due to an injury, would have truly been an unfortunate situation. His “outer game”  has no evident weaknesses.So his “inner game” is the only thing that can be improved. Or better yet said, could have been improved, because even if during 2011 he and his coach said that the belief of him ever winning another Grand Slam isn’t quite there, I’m sure 2011 was a season that helped build his confidence back up again. In terms of self-belief, one turning point surely was the French Open match he played against Djokovic – whom at that point was still undefeated for the season –  in which he managed to push the Serb and send a sign that he can still compete at the highest level.

Basically for 2012, Del Potro is in a much better starting position than 2011 and his ascendancy in the top 8 is only a matter of time.

Andy Murray

Andy Murray

Andy Murray - victory is always so close yet so far

Since 2008, he has been a contender in each and every Grand Slam, yet despite making it to the final on three occasions, he has never managed to stamp his name on the winner’s trophy. I said it before, but I guess it won’t hurt me if I say it again. If Andy is ever going to win a Slam he has to start the tournament really well and pretty much wipe out his first week opponents in straight sets and by doing so, send a strong message in the locker room that he is here to win it. So far, in one way or another he has always found a way to make his life difficult during the first week matches which took more time and effort than they should have. Now, from my point of view as a trader, I really can’t complain, because those matches are very profitable. But I am mentioning these facts because if things do change, then it’s a sign for better things to come from Murray and a change of tactic from our part – as traders – is necessary.

Important to mention here are also two matches he played before the French Open. One was the SF in Monte Carlo where he had the better of Nadal, yet let it slip away, and the second match was the SF in Rome in which he played the then undefeated Djokovic and where he yet again was in a good position – serving for the match – but failed quite miserably to close of the match. Mentally, sometimes Murray can be anywhere. Perfect examples of this are the two first round losses in Indian Wells and Miami.

One other thing you hear a lot of other experts saying about Murray’s game is that he isn’t agressive enough. One important step in that direction was taken at the French Open when he was playing the german player Michael Berrer. In that match Murray was leading by one set, and early in the second  he slipped and twisted his ankle, which caused a few movement problems for him, at which point his only tactic was to be more aggressive and go for the shots. And in the end it paid off.

The moment (the injury) happened I was worried my tournament was over there and then. All I could do was start being more aggressive to shorten the points

Andy Murray

Looking back at the match, I have to say that after the injury occurred, Murray was pretty much unplayable. Starting from that match onward, you could see the same tactics and most importantly, the belief in those tactics and his aggressiveness, in some of Murray’s matches during this past season.

And if that match wasn’t enough, the  next one in which he played Troicki was also a brilliant performance from Murray and overall, with an injury to the ankle he managed to achieve his best result at the French Open. Of course, as I said earlier the problem was never reaching the SF of a Slam, but putting the best possible performance when he gets there.

But if you talk about Murray’s 2011 season you simply can’t overlook the match against Nadal at Wimbledon where he was one set up (things were going relatively well)  and 15-30 up on Nadal serve in the second set, when he  missed a easy forehand which ultimately changed the entire dynamic – and ultimately, outcome – of the match. In fact, he lost the next 7 games after that point and was pretty much absent from the match approximately 40 minutes. Now, momentum swings are not something new or rare in tennis, but a swing at this level and of such magnitude is rarely seen on the men’s tour.

All in all, similar to Djokovic, if Murray stays in the top 4 while never losing patience, and always on the lookout to improve his game, sooner or late he will get his chance. As time passes I’m sure he will be able to put all his accumulated experience to good use. After all, he has had a good asian swing performance, even snatching the no. 3 spot from Federer  for a while. But as Federer pointed out when asked what he thinks about Murray’s good form, the asian swing was lacking of any serious competition.

But that statement is besides the point, because Murray did win against the same players that he usually encounters during the first weeks of Grand Slam, the very same players that have to be dismissed by him in straight sets, but until now has failed to do so.

Other players on the men’s tour

Berdych is a player that my ratings suggest will do much better in 2012 than in 2011. There are several factors that suggest so, but I won’t go into full details, I’ll just leave it at that.

There are 6 US players on tour to monitor. Mardy Fish is the no.1 ranked US player, followed by John Isner, Andy Roddick, Ryan Harrison, Donald Young and Sam Querrey. With Fish it will be a question of whether or no he is healthy. If he is, he can take on any player on tour. That has always been the case in the past as well, even much so starting with this past season when he decided to take his game more seriously. Isner is a player you can never count out, because he has the biggest serve on the tour. Roddick is a player that could slide even lower in the rankings in 2012. He lacks any big weapons and his serve isn’t bringing him as many “free points” as it used to, but he does have a huge fighting spirits on court and that alone can compensate to some degree. The other two, Ryan Harrison and Donald Young are the young talent and are expected to grow in experience and build on their 2011 results. As for Sam Querrey, he has a top 20 game but his mental game has let him down on too many occasions.

Milos Raonic.At one point during the first part of the season, before a back injury kicked in, managing to get a break of serve against this guy was a thing to celebrate. His serve is top 10 quality, and that goes for both his first and second serve. Roddick gave us a demonstration of the kind of effort one has to put in order to win against the guy. 2011 has been the year he’s managed to make a name for himself and usually the second year is a lot tuffer since players know what to expect. But the Canadian has big weapons and if he stays healthy I’m sure we’ll hear more about him in 2012. And if we are speaking of Canadians I should mention another one here, Vasek Pospisil.He first got on the radar of most people at the same time with Raonic when the two teamed up to play doubles in 2010 at Montreal and managed to defeat the Djokovic/Nadal team. He’s a tall player with a solid game and Raonic’s successes could act as a strong motivator for him.

Tipsarevic has had his best season so far. Entered the top 10 and even got a chance at playing at the World Tour Finals in London where he put on a good show in both of the matches he played, and could have even passed the round robin stage. He’s a good player, a solid top 30 player but his current ranking is just slightly to high, but if he keeps his 2011 intensity and passion at the same levels, he could very well finish the 2012 season ranked in the top 20. And in a very similar situation, is Nicolas Almagro who is in the top 10 with only the clay court results helping him.

Grigor Dimitrov is a player I mentioned before here on the blog. I was noting how he was over-valued in matches against players of similar caliber, just because he was expected to do well given his talent. But talent alone doesn’t bring you victories. Victories bring you victories. As I noted then, as he starts to play more atp tournaments and gets a few wins under his belt, he’s going to play better and then the odds would be more justifiable. One particular important match was the one against Tsonga at Wimbledon, which was a perfect scenario for the youngster to show off what his capable of, and despite losing the match he left a good impression and showed some of his shot-making capabilities.

Other names worth mentioning are Monfils, Dolgopolov, Verdasco, Kevin Anderson, Gulbis, Tomic, Nalbandian. All these players are capable to a larger or lesser extend of achieving great results, so I thought I’d mention them, but I won’t go into further details for each one. But I will cover them in future posts.

The WTA

I won’t spend that much time covering the WTA, as on the women’s side, the mental game is the main factor that determines the outcome of matches. Of course there are exception, but they are the exceptions that only confirm the main rule. Looking from the top 20 downwards, all players have roughly the same technical abilities, so that’s why the mental side is what matters most.

Petra Kvitova

Petra Kvitova

Kvitova

Without a doubt, the star of the show in 2011 was Kvitova. She won only one of the four Grand Slams, but she made the biggest impression because her game is just so big. Even from a few seasons ago, you could tell she had the quality to win majors and possibly be a dominant figure on the tour. Results wise, she has been up and down, but as she gains more experience her results will show more consistency. She’s still only 21 years old and not fully developed as a player with a great number of improvements that can be made to her game. But that’s the scary part for her opponents, that even so, being under developed, she manages to blow them of court.

Provided that she stays healthy, I see no reason why she will not add a few more titles to her name.

Caroline Wozniacki and Azarenka

The question is how much time is the Dane going to keep the no.1 ranking and will she win a Major. While she is capable of keeping the world no. 1 ranking, I don’t see her capable of winning a Grand Slam. Her game lacks any big shots and her counter punching skills are simply not enough. Asking her to be agressive will not work because it’s not in her natural game. One example is the match she played against Serena Williams at the US Open where the Dane was struggling to hit a clean winner. No winners, no majors.It’s that simple.

I remember that before the start of the French Open, Azarenka was the main favorite to win the tournament. I considered her unready to win a major. She’s had some good results in 2011 and can build on them but some times her attitude is just way below par. We’ll see how her season goes and if she decided to change or add anything to her game.Until then I can’t rate her as a main contender for the Slams.

Pavlyuchenkova and Lisicki

Both of these girls are in the top 20 and are serious prospects for a top 10 ranking.

Pavlyuncenkova is a talented player that I see as a potential future Grand Slam winner. In 2011 she made the QF at the French.In that QF she played against Schiavone and suffered a bad loss, because she had the match totally in control from all points of view, but her mental game let her down at the worst possible times. That was a critical match, a turning point match in her career. Usually there are two types of players, that react in two different ways to such a loss. One type makes that match and situation, an isolated incident (learns from their mistakes) while the other type lets that situation repeat itself in the future and becomes a habit in his/her game.

Lisicki has a strong serve that can be very useful, especially on the women’s tour. 2011 represented an injury comeback year for her, and did very well, putting on a good performances in all the tournaments she participated in. As Pavlyuchenkova, she is regarded as a possible future Slam winner.

Clijsters and the Williams sisters

Clijsters and the Williams sisters  are the more experienced players on tour and are always contenders to winning majors. The only question is the motivational level. Clijsters has stated several times that her family comes first and tennis comes second. For the Williams sisters, it’s all about being healthy and having enough matches players, so that they have a minimum of form to go by.

Other players on the WTA tour

Na Li and Sam Stosur are the other two Grand Slam winners of 2011. While I always regarded Sam as a potential threat in the majors, Na Li took me a bit by surprise winning the French. What I found as the crucial match in that tournament, was her match with Kvitova where she was down a break in the third but managed to come back and win it. That surely was the moment that boosted her self-belief immensely. Unfortunately for her, the rest of the season was rather disastrous, as she literally was struggling to win a match. The first part of the season will be tell us more whether her form after the French was simply the pressure of expectations or if it will be more of a long term thing. She is also 29 years old (30 is February 2012) and that’s why I fear that winning the French Open could be the only major result of the career and 2012 will be the year she will slip further down the rankings.

Similar to Li, Stosur had a few poor performances after winning the US Open but her last results for 2011 were better,and I still see her able to do well in Grand Slams. She made SF in 2009 and played the final in 2010 at the French Open, and despite the 3rd Round loss in 2011 I think she is able to do well in Paris in future years. Her game is well suited for clay and with the boost in confidence she got from winning the US Open, her chances in Paris increase considerably. But until the French, she has to play the Aussie open, where it’s interesting to see how she deals with the expectations that the Australian public will have of her.

And speaking of Aussie players, Jarmilla Gajdisova and Jelena Dokic are expected to have more than decent performances in their adopted country.

The “Best Newcomer of the Year” award for 2011 was awarded to Camelia Irina Begu from Romania.She played 2 finals in 2011, both on clay, a surface she grew up on, and overall looks like a solid player with very “correct” shots.Provided that she stays injury-free I think we’ll see more of her in future seasons, especially during the clay court tournaments.

And speaking of clay court tournaments, Carla Suarez Navarro is another player that knows how to play on a clay court, only due to several problems, never got to play at her full potential. She is still young at 23 years of age, and that’s why she has plenty of time to improve on the highest ranking of 22, achieved in May 2009.

Other things to expect in 2012

By far the most important deviation, in 2012, from the regular tennis calendar will be the Olympic games tennis event, that will take place from the 29th of July until the 5th of August. The location will be Wimbledon, which means that 3 weeks after the finish of the Wimbledon Championships, the grass surface will have to be ready for a new full week of tennis. But I’ll cover this subject in future posts, at the appropriate time.

Another change worth mentioning will be at the Mutua Madrilena Open, during the European clay court season, when the red clay we’ve been accustomed to, will now be blue. It does seem that the blue color is starting to become the universal color for tennis.

 

And speaking of blue colored tennis courts, similar to what we have become accustomed to during the last few years, the 2012 tennis season will debut with an exhibition tournament in Abu Dhabi at the Zayed Sports City. Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Ferrer, Tsonga and Monfils will be the players that will be taking part in this year’s edition of the exhibition tournament. Should be interesting!

See you in 2012!

Images Credits: Roger Federer Andy Murray Petra Kvitova

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US Open 2011: First Week Review and Second Week Preview

by Marius Wender on September 7, 2011

Tsonga at the 2011 US Open

First Week Review

Compared to this year’s Australian and French Open, it’s been somewhat of a “slow” start to the tournament trading wise, but profitable nonetheless. This fact is also confirmed by the numbers, such as the total withdrawals, which have been at a record high. 17 in total to be exact.Things started to pick up in the last few days and besides the great quality matches to trade during the first few days (Ferrero vs Monfils, Young vs Wawrinka, Murray vs Haase which was  probably the most predictable comeback from 2 sets down) we had matches like Schiavone vs Pavlyuchenkova, Tsonga vs Fish and Wozniacki vs Kuznetsova. But let’s take a look at what we can take from this first week, both for the short and long term future.

The first thing to note in regard to the first week is some of the improvements that the young US players have made. Donald Young has been a player that was expected to mature and have results much earlier but for some reason it never happened. During the last few season it was a pattern of his to get the lead early on and start well, only to fall behind and lose the match in the end. It looked as if the same thing was about to happen in the first set against Chela, but in the end Young managed to close out the set and take the match in straight sets. Also it’s important to note that his first signs of improvements on the men’s tour were visible in 2008 where he played an excellent 5 set match against Blake and this season’s win against Murray in Indian Wells surely boosted his confidence.

Jack Sock is last year’s US Open junior champion and after passing the first round, he got to play against Andy Roddick in a night session on Arthur Ashe and managed to play a good match. Usually it takes for juniors quite a few season before they get accustomed on the men’s tour but in his case it could be a lot sooner and we’ll have to see how he progresses.

Unlike other players that played well at the US Open and other tournaments only to show their real value later on (e.g. Melanie Oudin),  McHale is a played to watch out for in the future. She has a good game and can play some good matches against top ranked players.She is currently ranked 55th place in the world and I expect the ranking to improve by next year’s US Open (provided that she stays injury-free).

Grigor Dimitrov, the young bulgarian talent, has been a player I have mentioned before. In the last couple of year’s, he has been over-valued in most matches he has played, and these over-evaluations had no real backing until this season when he has started to play more atp tour events and even played good matches against top ranked players. So slowly but surely the sign of this true capabilities are starting to show up. By the end of next season, I’m sure he will have a couple of good wins against big players (top 15 players), and I would watch out for that.

Nadal's Betfair Graphic for the US Open 2011 Winner Market

Nadal's Betfair Graphic for the US Open 2011 Winner Market - a little panic there due to cramping

On the men’s side of the draw, Novak had three easy matches while the other contenders to the title has problems in their opening rounds. Nadal had a first round encounter where he was broken in each set, and a third round match where he could have lost the first set and there also was the cramping incident afterwards which led to a slight spike in the odds. The other two contenders, Federer and Murray, both lost sets in the first week, which only steamed Djokovic’s odds even more, being at odds-on at one point. A similar trend to what we saw during this year’s French Open.

On the women’s side it has all been about Serena Williams. She is now down to 1.44 for winning the tournament and that about says it all.

Sharapova had a rather predictable exit against Penneta,  as her high risk game just didn’t do the job. But it’s that exact same high risk game that might just bring her other slams in the future. Other notable, first week exists from the womes’s draw are Na Li and Petra Kvitova. From these two players , I’d focus more on Kvitova as her early exit might have a negative impact on her ratings when it really shouldn’t and I expect her to continue in the same fashion as before, and I do see her winning a few more grand slams in the coming years.

Second Week Preview

I’m writing this preview on day 9, so a few matches have already been played in the second week.

Things are very much shaping up in the following way.

On the men’s side you have Djokovic vs Tsonga/Federer as a possible semi-final on one side and Murray vs Nadal as the other semi-final.

The most interesting match on the top half of the draw will be the match between Federer and Tsonga. The frenchman has now won two matches in a row against Federer and I see it hard for him to get 3 in a row. Tsonga was very dominant in the last two matches, but if the weather conditions are very much similar to the ones in the Fish match, I see Federer as having he upper hand. Tsonga is very much a player of small margins when playing against top players. I do expect that to change in the very near future and therefore taking his rightful place in the top 5 very soon.

In a possible Murray vs Nadal semi-final, the most important things is how much time do both players take in their QF matches, and how high will the first serve percentage be for Murray.

On the women’s draw I believe the winner will be from the top half of the draw. It will be very much about how the opponents of Serena Williams respond. I’m quite interested in how Pavlyuchenkova plays against her, as I do see the Russian as a future grand slam winner. Wozniacki also had a good match against Kuznetsova, but I have to say it again,  it’s hard to see how she can win against a good enough shot-maker. On the bottom half of the draw, the finalist will probably come from the Stosur v Zvonareva match, but will have to wait and see.

Other external factors as the weather have slightly changed the general perception on the tournament and we’ll have to see if further weather updates may have an impact on some of the important matches.

 

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