The tennis season’s structure is quite amazing.It never ceases to amaze me how in December everything is pretty much dead, from a tennis traders perspective, then as soon as the fireworks are over on new year’s eve, there are over 30 tennis matches available for trading. And it’s not like these are just any matches.These are high quality matches, with top players taking part.
Of course the Australian Open has a big part to play here, as all players are trying to gain as much form as possible before the first Grand Slam of the year. But the positioning of this event, so early in the calendar, has always been a problem for a large number of players, mainly due to the fact of not having enough time to prepare. And as a consequence, this has led players to be more prone to injuries; and similar to what we have seen in the past, this season we will have a number of players that will have the misfortune to get injured before or during the AO. [click to continue…]
We are in the final stages of the 2011 Australian Open.
Trading wise, it’s been an interesting and profitable Grand Slam so far. At the start of the tournament on the men side I backed Djokovic on the winners market as I saw him as an in form player who does well in the majors and having won here back in 2008 can only help. After yesterday’s match against Berdych I decided to go on and hedge for a profit, as Djokovic will have a tough task getting past Federer in the first semi-final. On the other side of the men’s draw things can become more interesting. We are in the quarter final stages were Murray will be playing Dolgopolov and Ferrer will be facing Nadal. This part of the draw is where we could see Murray progress all the way to the final. Murray can take on Nadal and why not even go all the way this year and win his first major. It’s still a long way to go, but as I have stated before I don’t believe Nadal will win this tournament.
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In my last post I talked about the trading opportunities I like to look out the most in the Grand Slam.
In the first 3 days of the 2011 Australian Open we have had all the mentioned opportunities present themselves.
On the first day there where four, two sets down comebacks, three of which were full comebacks in which the player that did comeback also went on to win the match. On day 2 we had three comebacks, two of which were full comebacks, and on day 3 we had two comebacks one of which was a full one. So, nine comebacks in total so far. The number is higher than usual and what makes things even better is the fact that most of these matches, where matches on the show courts, which means more exposure for the match and better liquidity for us traders.
No so many opportunities for trading a match on fatigue as these matches usually are on the end on the first week of a Grand Slam. But there were two so far, one was the Nalbandian vs Hewitt match and one less evident was the Robredo vs Fish match.
Only one match had an injury, and that was the Venus Williams vs Sandra Zahlavova where Venus picked up an injury during the last point of the first set tie break. Again this match presented some great trading opportunities.
Some quick tennis trading tips before the start of the 2011 Australian Open.
Comebacks from two sets down
2-0 comebacks are what I like to watch out for in the Grand Slams. They do happen and are some of the most profitable tennis trades you can make. They usually happen when you have two players of relatively equal value and one happens to take a 2 sets lead without being overly dominant in the match. As an example, take the Ferrer vs Baghdatis match from last year’s Australian Open where Ferrer took a 2 sets lead after two tightly contested sets. There wasn’t much is those two first sets, I’d go as far as to say Baghdatis played better and the statistics indicated that as well, only Ferrer played the important points better. In the end Baghdatis did make a comeback and won the match.
Fatigue can be an important factor in a Grand Slams. I’ll make a reference again to the match between Ferrer and Baghdatis. Although Baghdatis did go on to win it, it was an exhausting match which can lead to his fitness level to be decreased in the following matches. Baghdatis’s next match was against Hewitt and after losing the first set 6-0 and being 4-2 down in the second he was forced to retire. Another perfect example is the match between De Bakker and Isner at the 2010 Wimbledon when Isner had to play De Bakker after that incredible 10 match against Mahut. I remember that De Bakker was available at odds as high as evens. De Bakker went on to win the match in straight sets.
Injuries can take place on the tennis court quite often. I was caught off guard in many matches when a player suddenly felt ill or called the trainer. The only reason I mention injuries here is because, out of all the tournaments in the season, the Australian Open is where you are likely to see the most withdrawal due to injury of some sort. This is mainly due to the fact that this Grand Slam is positioned so early in the calendar and most players come with very few official matches played. Another reason is the extreme weather you can get in Melbourne.
To end this post I’d like to share my views on the mens tournament where I see Djokovic as value (if you like trading the tournament winner market), and I look forward to seeing Nadal’s first matches as I don’t see him the favorite the odds would suggest. More on this as the tournament progresses.